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Economic crisis in Kenya
Economic crisis in Kenya
Posté le 25.05.2008 par lailasamburuTime to confront this economic crisis is now
The Central Bank of Kenya should now take the lead in addressing the economic crisis facing the country. Inflation is at more than 26 per cent, the highest in many years.
The cost of food, which was never cheap in the first place, is rising at 36 per cent a year.
The accelerating erosion of the ability of the poor and the middle classes to buy food and meet everyday costs presents a considerable threat to peace.
Inflation demoralizes and destabilizes.
The cost of food is rising partly because of supply constraints. Farms in parts of the country are not producing because of the displacement of people in the political violence.
The cost of fertilizer has increased from Sh1,200 for a 50-kilo bag to Sh4,000.
The announcement by the Kenya Tea Development Agency that it will not import fertiliser for tea farmers adds another dimension to the farm input situation.
CBK and Treasury might be sitting out this economic crisis in the belief that the system will correct itself.
The facts cited earlier indicate that far from being corrected, the situation is certain to get worse.
FIRST, THE RESETTLEMENT OF farmer's is likely to take longer and, given the statements of some politicians, including Lands Minister James Orengo, to the effect that the displaced can be resettled elsewhere, the speedy resumption of agricultural production is far from assured.
Secondly, because of the high cost of inputs, many farmers will likely plant without fertiliser, an exercise in futility since yields will plummet.
Therefore, next year’s crop is endangered, and food shortages should be expected not just to persist but to get a lot worse.
It is very likely that CBK and the other authorities are keeping an eye on the underlying inflation and will base their actions on that.
For the ordinary Kenyan, when the cost of the fare from Buru Buru to the city center rises from Sh20 to Sh70, or when the basket of goods which used to cost Sh5,000 now costs Sh11,000, inflation is not the abstract figure that bureaucrats are focusing on; it is the daily draining of their pockets.
AS A START, THE GOVERNMENT should immediately put a cap on its expenditure.
Spending on new limousines for ministers, non-essential travel and other creature comforts ought to be suspended, as should pork barrel development projects and non-emergency employment.
Secondly, revenue collection should be tightened to avoid tax leakage through inefficient collection and corruption.
Third, the government should for a time suspend part of the tax on oil products, especially diesel.
This should blunt the force of economy-wide inflationary pressure by cutting the cost of production.
Fourth, the government should pull out all stops in securing next year’s crop.
To achieve this, it should ensure that all farmers are back on their farms and producing food as quickly as possible.
Additionally, it should ensure that subsidies are quickly in place to bring the cost of fertiliser down to its previous level.
The subsidies can be withdrawn slowly as supply stabilizes and international prices improve.
There is also a powerful argument, at least in the long term, to consider acquiring the capacity to manufacture our own fertilizers.
Many years ago, a parastatal was proposed to do that job.
Had it succeeded, the country would not be where it is now. Further, a careful analysis of the fertilizer distribution system is required.
It is such a critical factor in our ability to feed ourselves that it can’t be left solely to the forces of the market.
If this crisis is not confronted head on and urgently, if difficult decisions are not immediately taken, then what looks like a transient difficulty might grow into a catastrophe.
And that is why we think that the Central Bank of Kenya — whose responsibility, in any case, is the stabilization of prices — should lend its prestige, expertise and influence in beginning to confront this monster.
SIX months ago, December 2007 Kenya made the world news for all the wrong reasons. Political unrest, more clearly defined by machetes being scraped along the tarmac, brought an instant halt to the arrival of that instant money spinner, the golden rich tourist. If effect, overnight, the country was divided in two and its pot of gold at the end of the rainbow smashed to smithereens. It was during this period that granaries and farms were set alight.
During Kenya's disputed presidential elections in December 1,500 died and some 600,000 were displaced. As a result, according to BBC reports this morning, the Kenyan government has been forced to import three million bags of maize.
In a month, basically due to increased food prices, from 21.8% in March, the annual inflation rose to 26.6%.
Ultimately, political unrest has brought, in its wake, a tsunami of food riots to Kenya.
Today's news is that hungry protestors are storming the streets of Nairobi, demanding the Kenyan government cuts back the cost of basic staples like maize flour which will hardly auger well with the foreigners who were assured during February that business was "continuing as usual".
The negative impact of these food riots will surely affect Kenya's Tourism even more?
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