Vers quel bilan economique ???...

Economic loss beyond estimates

Without doubt, every guesstimate proffered relating to the social and economic mayhem and damage wrought on our poor country over the past few weeks, is an underestimate.

Two things clearly stand out. The fallout is so diverse, deep and ongoing that at this juncture, all one can say is that it is gargantuan, unquantifiable and compounding.

The second is that the robust economic restoration and progress witnessed in the past few years has been systematically halted and in some cases, wrecked in a mere three weeks. As things stand, the performance of and confidence in our economy has regressed to those dark old days of the last decade of the Moi era. It is indeed ironic that President Kibaki both presided over its greatly improved performance and its hasty downturn.

It is important to point out that even if a semblance of social harmony and order resumes, hand in hand with a return of reasonable commercial and economic activity, much damage has been inflicted and will result in a high price. What is taking place now is a move from short term damage, which is often easier to recover from, to one of harder, medium term decisions.

These range from whether to hold back on investment and loans, to deciding whether to include, or exclude, Kenya from much of the tourist circuit.

It is useful to point out that whilst the Kenyan economy was performing strongly and confidence was high prior to the election fallout, there were some grey clouds on the horizon that were going to impact on performance this year. First, the last rains were deficient in several parts and around 70 per cent of the crop planted failed. This will put additional pressure on food prices, especially in those areas.

Furthermore, any handbrake put on agricultural activity feeds through to reduced overall economic performance.

Secondly, the world is experiencing some massive price shocks in oil and basic foods, which impact heavily and negatively on all, Kenya included. The price of oil is knocking at the door of $100 a barrel and the price of wheat has risen by 80 per cent in the past year.

BEARING IN MIND KENYA IMPORTS all of the former and much of the latter, as well as a number of other foodstuffs, it is not difficult why the cost of living is roaring ahead. Third, the US economy is in a downturn with resultant negative ramifications for the rest of the world.

So, factors beyond our control were likely to shave off a couple of percentage points of our growth even before the mayhem. We would have done well to have got through this year with a growth rate of 5 per cent plus, without the self inflicted damage.

That has now all changed and a good example of the short and medium term self-inflicted damage is to look at our tourism industry. In the past three years the Kenyan tourist industry had started to take off. We have moved from a plateau of half a million international arrivals to over a million. It has roared ahead of tea and horticulture exports, to become Kenya’s largest foreign exchange earner.

I used the words “started to take off” deliberately because Kenya’s share of the world tourism cake, in relation to its potential, is minimal. The prospect of two million international visitors within three years was a very real one.

Today, Kenya tourism is dead in the water. Cancellations now extend to mid year and Kenya is fast being taken off the world tourism radar screen so that the next two high seasons are likely to be sluggish, to say the least.

Tourism is just one of many examples. There is damage inflicted on all sectors and sub-sectors of the economy. Then there is the loss of confidence that accompanies such damage.

However, the fundamentals of Kenya’s economy are good. It is resilient and will pick up. But the damage is extensive and it will take time and much dedication.


Quelles sont les conséquences économiques pour le Kenya?

Le tourisme, un des secteurs moteurs de l’économie du pays, qui emploie 250 000 personnes, a subi des pertes sévères, des centaines de ressortissants étrangers ayant été évacués du pays par les tour opérateurs, dont les activités sont quasiment paralysées. Les pertes du secteur hôtelier sont estimées à près de 40 millions d’euros pour la période qui va jusqu’à la mi-janvier. Grâce au port de Mombasa, le Kenya est un carrefour pour l’approvisionnement de toute la région, et la destruction de portions du chemin de fer et de la route de l’ouest, bloquée par des barrages de miliciens, a provoqué des graves problèmes de ravitaillement notamment en Ouganda, au Burundi et au Rwanda. Rien que pour le mois de janvier, l’activité industrielle a baissé de 35% et risque de provoquer le licenciement de 400 000 employés d’ici le mois de mai. Les secteurs du thé et des fleurs (le Kenya fournit un quart de l’importation florale de l’Europe) ont subi également une forte baisse de leur activité, basée essentiellement dans la vallée du Rift.